Support · Stage 4 · Probability

Support Explain that observed probability is the relative frequency resulting from repeated trials of a simulation and determine observed probabilities

Resources for the prerequisite content of this dot point: earlier-stage (or earlier sub-level) dot points in the same strand that students usually need first. Use these to fill gaps before or alongside the core lesson.

Prerequisite links are draft mappings generated from the syllabus structure (earlier stage, same strand, closest content). They are being reviewed by teachers. Spot a poor match? Tell us.

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Prerequisite dot points

Assign expected probabilities to outcomes in chance experiments with random generators, including digital simulators, and compare the expected probabilities with the observed probabilities after both small and large numbers of trials

Stage 3 · Chance B Draft mapping

  • Interactive toolEnrichment
    NRICH: Which Spinners?
    NRICH (University of Cambridge) · Interactive (browser) · Free · Link checked 2026-10-15 · Low floor high ceiling, No prep, Teacher notes
    Use it for: Match spinners to their results using expected vs observed frequency.

Determine and discuss the differences between the expected probabilities and the observed probabilities after both small and large numbers of trials

Stage 3 · Chance B Draft mapping

  • Interactive toolEnrichment
    NRICH: Which Spinners?
    NRICH (University of Cambridge) · Interactive (browser) · Free · Link checked 2026-10-15 · Low floor high ceiling, No prep, Teacher notes
    Use it for: Match spinners to their results using expected vs observed frequency.

Explain why observed frequencies of outcomes in chance experiments may differ from expected frequencies, and how this relates to randomness

Stage 3 · Chance B Draft mapping

  • PhET Plinko Probability
    PhET Interactive Simulations · Interactive (browser) · Free · Link checked 2026-10-15 · Hands-on, No prep
    Use it for: Compare observed and expected outcomes over many trials.